Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 28.771840 34.218041 40.175903 47.146833 55.047622 63.692478 73.833953
2025-06-22 19.996308 26.998543 35.414151 46.140104 59.303966 74.785942 94.212338
2025-06-29 15.952547 23.758652 33.830606 47.489684 65.213336 87.102090 115.809692
2025-07-06 11.870208 19.452214 29.920697 44.955510 65.464141 91.899065 127.907280
2025-07-13 10.089556 17.896003 29.283941 46.396929 70.656823 102.952467 148.196335
2025-07-20 8.636442 16.511886 28.604638 47.540920 75.322913 113.367862 167.974516
2025-07-27 7.567476 15.514686 28.304162 49.084605 80.507135 124.605257 189.228611
2025-08-03 6.612813 14.520240 27.836740 50.243896 85.093722 135.116786 209.821338
2025-08-10 5.500684 13.026783 26.340421 49.590824 86.831550 141.543549 224.841354
2025-08-17 4.765073 12.093915 25.646322 50.103223 90.290896 150.522424 243.739204
2025-08-24 4.042658 11.038901 24.585992 49.864752 92.483170 157.635743 260.107891
2025-08-31 3.273921 9.714827 22.844508 48.257382 92.303277 161.072952 271.089557
2025-09-07 2.903331 9.257812 22.789671 49.791841 97.667225 173.706836 297.031154
2025-09-14 2.331618 8.181027 21.367067 48.724063 98.634271 179.612386 313.183518
2025-09-21 2.057916 7.787737 21.286443 50.132381 103.895694 192.510970 340.502561
2025-09-28 1.546280 6.574247 19.232320 47.485961 101.803084 193.377686 349.031376
2025-10-05 1.376607 6.312232 19.271815 48.991352 107.220280 206.741900 377.703478
2025-10-12 1.211672 6.012104 19.172156 50.185824 112.110086 219.389217 405.604878
2025-10-19 1.087213 5.808029 19.272811 51.797229 117.846091 233.653995 436.530263
2025-10-26 0.960146 5.549900 19.195591 53.007086 122.866718 246.858087 466.094142
2025-11-02 0.780728 5.014436 18.303280 52.325559 124.180186 253.684328 485.341310
2025-11-09 0.669126 4.706413 17.970543 52.860291 127.879212 264.776920 511.958533
2025-11-16 0.552184 4.314746 17.330626 52.611431 129.978872 273.087074 534.112411